Russia Expands Military Presence in the Sahel, Raising Concerns for Nigeria’s National Security Amid Growing Instability

In a significant escalation of its influence in Africa, Russia has deployed additional troops to its Sahel operations, including the notorious Bear Brigade, which has been active in Burkina Faso since May. This development comes as Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu dispatches a high-level delegation to Niger Republic to engage with the military junta that seized power there.

The Bear Brigade, part of an estimated 300 Russian operatives in Burkina Faso, includes members of Russia’s military intelligence, the GRU. Approximately 30 of these elite forces have taken up positions in Ouagadougou and nearby military bases, where they are training troops loyal to junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traoré. Their presence has intensified concerns about the security situation in the region, especially after reports of a countercoup attempt in September 2023.

Russia’s expanding military footprint in the Sahel has prompted security analysts to warn of its implications for West Africa, including Nigeria. With Russian-backed forces now entrenched in Burkina Faso, fears are mounting that the destabilization of the Sahel could spill over into neighboring countries, further undermining regional security. Nigeria, already grappling with Boko Haram and other insurgencies in its northeastern region, faces heightened risks as the Sahel becomes a theater for increased Russian involvement.

Experts have highlighted how coup leaders in the region, like Traoré, are leveraging Russian forces not to combat insurgencies but to bolster their personal security, leading to worsening humanitarian conditions and escalating violence. The Bear Brigade’s reputation for brutal tactics in Ukraine raises fears that similar atrocities could be carried out in the Sahel, compounding the suffering of civilians in conflict zones.

Lou Osborn, an analyst with All Eyes on Wagner, has drawn attention to the failures of Russia’s strategy in Africa. “The Malian experience shows that Russian mercenaries’ heavy-handed tactics have led to more violence, not stability. If the same approach is replicated across the Sahel, it will only exacerbate the region’s problems,” Osborn stated.

The broader implications of Russia’s presence in the Sahel are causing unease in Abuja. As President Tinubu’s administration seeks to mediate the political crisis in Niger, as the Nigerian Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Christopher Musa and his Nigerien counterpart, General Moussa Salaou Barmou, convened in Niamey, Republic of Niger, on August 28, 2024, to fortify the bilateral relationship between Nigeria and Niger.

According to the Director Defence Information, Brigadier General Tukur Gusau the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by the defence chiefs aimed at enhancing security cooperation and addressing mutual security challenges.

Nigeria, as the leading power in West Africa, is increasingly concerned that the Sahel’s security crisis could further destabilize the region, particularly if Russian influence continues to grow unchecked.

Kyle Robertson of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy echoes this sentiment, arguing that Russia’s deepening involvement in the region “questions the long-term viability of regimes relying on foreign mercenaries to maintain power.” For Nigeria, this could mean a more volatile northern border and increased challenges in its counterterrorism efforts.

As diplomatic efforts continue, the stakes are high for Nigeria and its neighbors, with Russia’s expanding military presence posing a direct challenge to regional stability.